Sustainable Energy First’s latest Energy Market Review looks back at the factors influencing energy markets over summer and ahead to the key risks and opportunities for businesses through winter 2026/27.
Energy markets remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments over summer, with tensions in the Middle East repeatedly pushing prices higher and adding volatility. At the same time, European gas storage levels improved over the summer, while periods of strong wind and solar generations helped ease pressure on prices.
The latest Energy Market Review from Sustainable Energy First, published today, looks at how these competing forces shaped UK and European energy markets through the summer, and what businesses can expect from the market over the next six months.
What shaped energy markets this summer?
The Review tracks a number of factors that influenced prices over the six-month period, including:
- Geopolitical tensions and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz
- European gas storage levels and the approach to winter
- Competition for LNG between Europe and Asia
- Norwegian gas supply and maintenance
- Weather-driven demand and renewable generation
- French nuclear and European hydro availability
Energy market forecast for the next six months
The Review considers the different factors that could push prices higher or provide some relief through winter 2026/27.
Winter pricing is expected to remain volatile and highly responsive to weather forecasts, LNG flows and geopolitical developments. The detailed forecast brings these factors together to assess the outlook for the months ahead, giving businesses useful context as they consider their energy strategy and procurement plans.
