The world has lost the opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5°C without temporarily exceeding that threshold, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Published on 21 October, the Emissions Gap Report 2026 warns that decades of insufficient emissions reductions have made a limited or non-existent overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal no longer achievable. The priority now, the report says, must be to minimise the extent and duration of the overshoot and pursue a pathway back to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The findings underline the scale of the challenge facing governments and businesses as they navigate the transition to a lower-carbon economy, while balancing energy security and affordability.
Warming could reach 2.8°C this century
Under current policies, the world is on course for approximately 2.8°C of warming over the course of this century, according to UNEP. This would substantially exceed the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
The report explains that emissions pathways developed in previous years to achieve 1.5°C with little or no overshoot have become outdated because the expected reductions did not materialise.
The challenge now is to prevent temperatures from rising further than necessary and, if feasible, bring them back down over time.
Under UNEP’s lowest-overshoot scenario, global warming would peak at around 1.7–1.8°C during the century before a 50% chance of returning to 1.5°C by 2100. Achieving this would require immediate, deep and sustained emissions cuts. Global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, compared with 2025 levels.
UNEP warns that existing national climate pledges are insufficient to deliver the reductions required to minimise the overshoot.
The report therefore shifts the focus from whether the world can still avoid any overshoot to how much warming can be prevented through faster action.
Jackdaw approval highlights tension between energy security and climate goals
The UNEP report was published on the same day that the UK government announced its approval for gas production at the Jackdaw field in the North Sea, prompting criticism from climate campaigners.
Ministers say the project could begin supplying gas to British homes and businesses from the end of October. The government estimates that Jackdaw could increase domestic gas production by around 6% at peak output, support hundreds of jobs and contribute approximately £2.9bn to the UK economy over the field’s lifespan.
The government argues that domestic gas production can strengthen energy security, reduce reliance on imports and support the economy during a period of international energy market uncertainty. It has also announced an initial £2bn for a new Energy Wealth Fund, intended to reinvest oil and gas revenues into renewable and low-carbon energy projects.
However, the decision has drawn criticism from environmental organisations, which argue that developing new fossil fuel resources risks locking in emissions at a time when global consumption needs to shift towards lower-carbon alternatives.
Friends of the Earth energy campaigner Danny Gross criticised the decision, calling it “a huge blow to Labour’s green credentials.” Gross highlighted the stark findings of the UNEP report and warned that the decision will “slow down the shift to cheaper, cleaner energy and the green jobs of the future.”
The government maintains that its approach is compatible with the UK’s legally binding climate commitments and that domestic gas has a continuing role in meeting the country’s energy needs while the transition progresses.
Will the Jackdaw decision reduce energy bills?
The government argues that producing gas domestically can improve supply security and reduce dependence on imported fuel. Most energy analysts do not expect the additional gas production from Jackdaw to have a significant, direct impact on energy bills. Gas prices are strongly influenced by international markets, meaning additional UK production does not automatically translate into cheaper energy for households or businesses.
The government’s longer-term argument is that reducing reliance on gas for electricity generation will help bring bills down over time. Its proposed £2bn Energy Wealth Fund is intended to support investment in renewable and low-carbon energy, although the impact on consumer bills will depend on how that investment translates into lower costs and reduced exposure to volatile gas prices.
